IL PRESIDENTE BISCAZZIERE E IL DITTATORE CONFUCIANO

Cina - USA Escalation Global Times Published: 2019/5/17 22:49:35 e' ora di mettere da parte qualsiasi illusione sugli Stati Uniti �. La guerra commerciale lanciata dagli Stati Uniti sta diventando sempre piu' simile alla guerra vera. Da una parte gli Stati Uniti non si fanno scrupoli di sopprimere la Cina, dall'altra la Cina si impegna a schiacciare l'arroganza degli Stati Uniti. Gli Stati Uniti hanno detto alla sua gente che la Cina presto avrebbe fatto dei compromessi, e noi dobbiamo scoprire queste menzogne rendendo chiaro che la Cina non firmera' alcun accordo svantaggioso. La guerra commerciale Cina-USA sta rimodellando le relazioni bilaterale. La societa' cinese deve essere consapevole che una feroce e strategica rivalita' e' inevitabile. Huawei non puo' perdere, ne' la Cina puo'. Questa e' la vera preoccupazione della nostra generazione e la responsabilita' che dovremmo sostenere per il futuro della Cina. _______________________________________ - perche' Donald Trump il lunedi' annuncia che l'accordo con la Cina sui dazi all'esportazione e' fatto e il venerdi' scatena l'aumento delle imposte e ne minaccia altri? E' possibile cambiare idea su un argomento cosi' delicato e rilevante nel giro di pochi giorni? Donald Trump accusa i cinesi di voltafaccia improvviso su un testo d'accordo gia' quasi ultimato. Viceversa la delegazione di Xi Jinping scarica sugli americani la responsabilita' di aver posto condizioni umilianti, della cui inaccettabilita' erano stati informati. E' molto probabile che i cinesi dicano la verita' mentre Trump formula l'ennesima bugia (il Washington Post ne ha contate piu' di 900 dall'inizio della presidenza) che si spiega con la sua attitudine di biscazziere trasferita alla Casa Bianca. La Guerra dei Dazi per Trump e' diventato un utile strumento di propaganda e di manipolazione dei mercati finanziari, che hanno ovviamente molto a cuore l'argomento. Quando c'e' bisogno di "pompare" denaro verso Wall Street, il presidente biscazziere lancia un tweet di sfrenato ottimismo a cui segue il previsto rialzo, quando viceversa ha bisogno di lanciare il "dump" e favorire lo short selling fa una dichiarazione di senso contrario. I suoi amici affaristi e le decine di societa' della Trump Organization non aspettano altro per guadagnare dalla manipolazione dei mercati. Dopo che le perdite di Wall Street hanno raggiunto il livello desiderato, il biscazziere lancia un tweet che consente di speculare al rialzo, come quello del lunedi' sera dopo che le quotazioni erano crollate di 600 punti, in cui lascia intravedere il possibile accordo con Xi Jinping al G20 di fine giugno. Quella di Trump e' una tecnica di "market abuse" gia' riscontrata in diverse occasioni, come ad esempio durante il G20 del 1 dicembre in Argentina, dove venne annunciato l'avvio del negoziato sui dazi durante l'incontro tra Trump e Xijnping e Wall Street registrava un balzo di 500 punti prima dell'annuncio ufficiale, grazie all'insider trading del biscazziere, e gli americani tenevano nascosta la notizia dell'arresto in Canada della CFO di Huawei, che avrebbe "disturbato" la manipolazione di Trump. Dopo pochi giorni, a notizia diffusa, inizio' il crollo di quasi il 20% delle quotazioni azionarie. - perche' sia gli Stati Uniti che la Cina proclamano di essere in grado di vincere la guerra commerciale ? E' solo un atteggiamento tattico di spavalderia negoziale o entrambi sono davvero convinti di trarre vantaggio dalla guerra dei dazi? Anche in questo caso Trump si e' lasciato andare alla solita bugia, dichiarando che i cinesi avrebbero pagato 100 miliardi di nuove tasse a favore degli americani. Qualcuno subito dopo ha dovuto spiegargli che sono le imprese e i consumatori americani che dovranno sobbarcarsi il 25% di aumenti, oppure rinunciare agli acquisti, perche' molte delle merci esportate dalla Cina verso gli USA non sono prodotte da quest'ultimi e quindi non sostituyibili con prodotti americani. Ma anche la Cina subira' contraccolpi perche' altri paesi, come il Vietnam, Taiwan o la Thailandia, producono molte delle merci concorrenti e quindi potranno beneficiare di margini consistenti di competitivita'. Inoltre gli esperti economici di Xi Jinping contano sul fatto che il loro mercato domestico ha dimensioni cosi' grandi da poter assorbire l'impatto delle mancate esportazioni verso gli USA, ma dovranno farlo con il costo non indifferente di una maggior indebitamento complessivo, sia delle aziende che delle famiglie, con il rischio di tempeste finanziarie interne. Molti commentatori ritengono che il vero grande vantaggio dei cinesi sugli americani in questa trade war e' dato dal fatto che Xi Jinping e' un dittatore che non deve presentarsi al giudizio degli elettori, mentre Trump tra un anno potrebbe non essere piu' il futuro presidente degli Stati Uniti. Ma e' vero anche il contrario, e cioe' che un regime monolitico potrebbe non essere flessibile nel gestire le ricadute socio-politiche di una crisi economica causata dalla guerra dei dazi, mentre il presidente USA ha strumenti di "manipolazione di massa" ben piu' collaudati, come ad esempio un poderoso rialzo di Wall Street proprio a ridosso della campagna elettorale, per accreditarsi come il presidente del boom economico. - chi paga davvero il conto delle tempeste finanziarie e commerciali ? Nessuno puo' prevedere con precisione gli effetti di una guerra commerciale prolungata tra Cina e USA, ma alcune valutazioni iniziano ad apparire. Many consumer goods manufacturers and retailers were taken aback by the news. �The tariff increase inflicts significant harm on U.S. industry, farmers and consumers,� Jacob Parker, vice president of the U.S.-China Business Council trade group, said in a statement. �It will decrease the competitiveness of American companies, reduce the efficiency of their global supply chains, and reverberate through the U.S. economy. Pure and simple, this is a tax on the American consumer.� Francine Lamoriello, executive vice president of global strategies at the Personal Care Products Council, the trade association for America�s cosmetics and personal care products industry, said products like soap, manicure items and deodorant were all on the list goods affected by the tariffs � and all �part of the daily lives of American consumers.� China�s retaliation, announced Monday, �makes our products that less interesting,� she said. Increased tariffs on Chinese goods will hike prices for consumers goods, analysts say. The latest tariffs will add another $500 a year in costs for the average U.S. household, Katheryn Russ, an economics professor at the University of California at Davis, told NPR. Another estimate says the tariffs announced last year will cost consumers an average of $767 per year. ...... Companies won�t immediately increase their prices, said Jon Gold, vice president of supply chain and customs policy at the National Retail Federation. �Retailers will try to endure as much of the costs as possible but 25%, they can�t absorb all of that,� he said. Products currently shipping to the U.S. for sale won�t see hiked prices, but some products may become more expensive in the summer, such as back-to-school items, he added. - un finto duello o uno scontro di in-civilta' ? http://en.people.cn/n3/2019/0513/c90000-9577385.html China spent 15 years on the talks before it joined the World Trade Organization (WTO), while the complex Uruguay Round of global trade talks cost nearly 8 years in gaming, not to mention the Doha Round negotiations that even failed to really set out after its start in 2001. The whole world is now watching whether China and the US can step out of the predicament soon as their trade talks are now rightly trapped in a same script. .... But it�s regrettable that the US failed to pick the golden key of win-win solution and walk out of the self-designed cage of so-called �fair trade�. If it insists on the unilateral extreme pressure, both sides will miss the best timing to resolve the problem. ... China firmly opposes the additional tariffs from the US, and has already made preparations to cope with all possible results. Its sensible and calm gesture has gained worldwide attention, through which the international community could find China�s enough strength to address economic challenges. Marching forward on a road to high-quality development, Chinese economy has accumulated high resilience and strong vitality. CCTV A statement read during the primetime 7 p.m. news on state broadcaster CCTV by anchor Kang Hui said China would "fight for a new world," adding that in its long history "there's nothing we haven't seen before." "As President Xi Jinping pointed out, the Chinese economy is a sea, not a small pond. A rainstorm can destroy a small pond, but it cannot harm the sea. After numerous storms, the sea is still there," Kang said. The clip went viral on China's social media sites, where it has been viewed millions of times. CCTV's own post of the clip has has been reposted by most state media accounts. Global Times http://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1149613.shtml The perception that China cannot bear it is a fantasy and misjudgment. If they weren't being seriously provoked, the Chinese people would not favor any trade war. However, once the country is strategically coerced, nothing is unbearable for China in order to safeguard its sovereignty and dignity as well as the long-term development rights of the Chinese people. China's tai chi philosophy stresses maintaining sobriety and rationality at any moment. It's a philosophy that is against impulsiveness and focuses on endurance. China has introduced measures to expand its opening-up policies while dealing with the US' trade war. That is to say, besides striking back at US' tariff moves, China remains dedicated to creating a more favorable internal and external environment so as to make sure that China can endure the trade war. The US government trumpeted that it would collect $100 billion in tariff revenue and the money could be used to purchase American agricultural products. It's ridiculous and is obviously fooling the American public. In an era when globalization continues to diminish the role of tariffs, Washington has threatened to bring manufacturing back to the US with tariff revenues and barriers. China's stance is clear-cut. It is willing to reach a deal but will never make concessions on issues of principle, nor trade its core interests. In contrast, the US' attitude is swaying. Driven by unrealistic anticipation, it has drifted between expressing optimism that exceeds the actual situation and arbitrarily waving the tariff stick. China has clarified its stance and will try to push the situation in a good direction. If the US is to play a roller coaster-style thriller game, it will bear the consequences. CNN https://edition.cnn.com/2019/05/13/politics/trump-china-tariffs-tweets-trade-negotiations/index.htmlPresident Donald Trump announced Monday that he'll meet face-to-face with Chinese President Xi Jinping at the G20 summit late next month amid the latest escalation in trade tensions between the two countries. Trump predicted that his meeting with Xi will likely be "very fruitful" and said he believes China wants to reach a deal, even as he vented about China reneging earlier this month on key portions of the deal being negotiated between the two economic powers. "We had a deal with China, it was 95% there and then my representatives...they went to China and they were told that things that were fully agreed to, we're not going to get anymore. That's not acceptable," Trump told reporters in the Oval Office on Monday. "I said, that's good, that's fine, put on the tariffs." "I love the position we're in," Trump said. MarketWatch https://www.marketwatch.com/story/washington-and-wall-street-wake-up-to-the-reality-that-beijing-is-happy-to-walk-away-2019-05-13?mod=MW_story_top_stories Washington and Wall Street wake up to the reality that Beijing is happy to walk away Published: May 13, 2019 3:05 p.m. ET ..... �Trump�s escalation comes at an awkward time, but if push comes to shove, they�re quite capable of supporting growth through more investment and credit,� he said. He added that China has the capability of borrowing more, particularly if it�s through the central government and not more debt-saddled provincial governments. In fact, China has already done so. �China has stepped up its stimulus measures aggressively since the start of the year, which suggests mature policy appreciation of the risks,� added Lena Komileva, chief economist at G-Plus Economics, in a note to clients. That�s not to say China would escape unscathed from a full-fledged war. SocGen, for instance, says the drag from the trade war for China can be as high as 1.2% of its GDP. And that�s without modeling the greater impact on global confidence as well as China�s relations with key counterparts like the European Union and Japan. Even with the downturn in global markets, there still seems to be a belief that one or both sides will blink. Even with the heavy losses on Monday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, -2.38% is still up nearly 9% for the year, hardly the market pricing in of a global economic collapse. ___________________ http://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1149749.shtml